Two states, two very different stories this summer. If you follow only the national headlines you would think the whole market is frozen. In Florida and Alabama it is not — it is just moving in ways the national numbers flatten out. Here is what the July 2026 data actually shows, and what it means depending on which side of the table you are sitting on.
Florida: more sales, more choice, prices barely moving
Florida closed 23,870 single-family homes in July, up 5.1% over July 2025. Condos and townhouses did better still, up 11%. New pending sales rose for the twelfth consecutive month.
What is not rising much is price. The statewide median for single-family homes came in at $425,000, up 3.7% year over year — roughly inflation. Condos and townhouses sat at $295,000, flat against last July. Flat.
The reason is inventory. Florida is carrying 4.5 months of supply in single-family and 7.8 months in condos. Anything past about six months is a buyer’s market by the usual rule of thumb, and Florida’s condo segment has been past it for a while. Sales are up because there is finally something to buy, not because buyers are fighting each other for it.
Alabama: the opposite problem
Alabama sold 7,361 homes in July, up 19.8% year over year and the highest monthly figure in about four years. Sales have now risen six months running.
The median sale price was $287,750 — up 19.6%, or $47,166, over July 2025. That is an enormous jump and it deserves a caveat: a statewide median moving twenty percent in a year usually reflects a change in what is selling as much as a change in what any one home is worth. More sales in higher-priced counties will pull the median up without a single seller on your street getting a better offer. Alabama also hit a post-pandemic high of 22,006 active listings and 4.1 months of supply, which is not what a runaway seller’s market looks like.
So read that 19.6% as a signal about market mix and momentum, not as a valuation for your home.
Rates: stubborn, not spiking
The 30-year fixed averaged 6.66% in Freddie Mac’s August 27 survey, essentially unchanged from the week before and about a tenth of a point above where it sat a year earlier. Fifteen-year was 5.98%.
The useful takeaway is that rates have stopped being news. Buyers who spent 2024 and 2025 waiting for a five-handle have largely stopped waiting. Florida’s chief economist attributes this year’s sales to pent-up demand returning independent of rate movement, and that matches what we see: people move because of a job, a birth, a marriage, a death, or a retirement, and eventually those reasons outrank a percentage point.
The Florida insurance story finally turned
This is the change worth paying the most attention to, because it has been the single biggest drag on Florida affordability for four years.
Citizens Property Insurance is applying an average statewide rate reduction of 8.7% at renewal beginning in spring 2026, affecting more than 330,000 policyholders across all 67 counties, with over 150,000 of them seeing cuts of 10% or more. South Florida sees the largest: Broward at 14.1%, Miami-Dade at 14.0%, Palm Beach at 11.9%, Monroe at 11.3%. Private carriers including Florida Peninsula, Security First, and Universal Property & Casualty have filed decreases of their own.
A decrease is not the same as cheap. Florida premiums are still high in absolute terms and coastal wind coverage still prices its own way. But for the first time since 2021 the insurance line on a buyer’s monthly payment is moving down instead of up, and that quietly does more for affordability in a lot of price ranges than a quarter-point on the mortgage would.
What this means if you are buying
You have leverage you did not have in 2022, particularly in Florida condos, where 7.8 months of supply means the seller across the table has competition. Ask for concessions. A rate buydown funded by the seller is frequently worth more to your monthly payment than the equivalent price cut.
Get an insurance quote before your inspection period ends, not after. And if you are looking at a Florida condo, read the reserve study and ask directly about pending special assessments — that is where the surprises live right now.
What this means if you are selling
Price to the last three comparable sales on your street, not to the state median and not to what your neighbor listed at in 2023. Homes that are priced correctly are still selling — Florida’s twelve straight months of rising pending sales says so plainly. Homes priced to last year’s story are the ones sitting.
In Alabama, do not let the 19.6% headline set your expectations. Get an actual comparative market analysis for your address.
The honest caveat
Every figure above is a state average, and nobody buys or sells a state. Baldwin County does not move like Jefferson County. Brevard does not move like Monroe. Vacant land and small acreage follow their own rhythm entirely, largely disconnected from the residential medians. A statewide number tells you which direction the wind is blowing; it tells you nothing about your particular roof.
If you want to know what is actually happening on your street — in cattle country, on the water, or anywhere between — that is a conversation we are always happy to have.